《选举中的谋略与博弈》第一部分读后感

作者: yangzhe1991 分类: “社论” 发布时间: 2015-04-21 17:32 ė 651条评论

最近在看选举中的谋略与博弈这本书,全书有点长,分为问题篇、方案篇、现实篇三部分,围绕美帝的选举讲了很多东西。最近看完了第一部分,收获还是挺大的,跟之前对选举的一些认识结合之后更容易清晰的去思考。因为不知道啥时候能把后两部分读完,因此先把第一部分的读后感写了。

首先是个文中提到的例子。

假如有个1公里长的沙滩,上面建两个冰淇淋店。假设所有游客都想买冰淇淋、沙滩的游客是均匀分布、游客只去离自己最近的冰淇淋店买冰淇淋,那么从游客的角度讲,两个店如果分别建在250米处和750米处,对游客是最方便的,游客最多走250米就能到一个最近的冰淇淋店。但是两个冰淇淋店的老板只会想着让自己多赚钱,所以其中一个店如果把地点往中间挪,那么中间那段沙滩的游客就会有更多人来自己的店,而自己那侧的游客虽然需要走更远的距离但还是会来这里。因此越往对方的店靠近,自己接管的范围越大赚钱越多。

最后会如何呢?显然平衡的状态只能是,俩店都开在沙滩正中间,每家管一半。

在选举中也如此。假设不考虑更多复杂情况,只假设选举的倾向是价值观左右来导致的一元因素。那么左派政党和右派政党到最后一定都变成一个中间形态的政党才能最大化支持度。

但是,任何一个“两党制”的国家本质上其实是多党制,只是因为历史、选举规则导致只有两个大党派才能执政,并不是不允许更多的党派参与选举。沙滩也没要求只能有两个冰淇淋店。因此那个只能在正中间买到冰淇淋的沙滩一旦加入第三个冰淇淋店,整个格局就改变了。第三家开在哪侧,在中间并靠那头的冰淇淋店的收入就要受到影响,而另一侧的冰淇淋店完全没有影响。在选举中就是,如果左派中出现一个第三方竞选人,那么民主党的选票就有不少会被这个“搅局者”抢走,共和党坐收渔利,反之亦然。从而很可能导致原本是在两大政党中支持度排第二的那位当选。

美国总统选举历史上曾经多次出现这种情况,最近的一次是2000年戈尔VS布什,虽然这次选举最终是最高法院的判决让布什上台而且戈尔拿到的普选票比布什多这引发了一些争议,但实际上如果没有一个名为Ralph Nader的左派绿党参选人参选总统并拿走2.7%的选票尤其是在最具争议的佛罗里达州拿到了接近10w张选票(而戈尔在这里最后只输给布什几百张),戈尔本可以毫无争议的当选。因为如果他不参选,即使这些人中很多人会弃权,其中很大一部分人显然是会投给同是左派的民主党候选人的。

同样是2000年,台湾的选举也发生了类似的事情。国民党没有经过党内初选直接让连战参选,宋楚瑜退党独立参选,而台湾的选举又是只有一轮的简单多数,因此这俩人分别获得了23.1%和36.8%的选票,让陈水扁以39.3%的低得票率当选。也因为有缺陷的简单多数制度,一直以来台湾的选举都有“弃保效应”的说法,希望民众为了保证自己支持的阵营能当选,选自己阵营里支持度最高的而非自己最支持的。2000年也用了这个策略,但当时的宋楚瑜一直呼吁“弃连保宋”,而马英九在最后关头用错误的民调来号召大家“弃宋保连”。当然那年的选举还有很多事情,这里因为只讨论投票规则所以不细说。

那什么样的选举方式是更合理的呢?一些国家采用两轮投票制,第一轮如果没有过半数者则选前两名进行第二轮投票。这自然是个很直接的方案来确保最终的获胜者是两大阵营中自己最喜欢的那个。还有一种方案叫“排序复选制”,只需要投一次票,但投票并不是在众多候选人中选一个,而是给每个候选人按自己的支持度排个序。计票的时候,先考虑所有人的第一选择,如果没人过半数,则把第一选择是选那些支持度过低的候选人的选票拿出来重新看他们的第二选择,把选票加到第二选择的候选人那。以此类推直到有人累加成半数。这样一次选举就搞定了,比选两次方便;同时因为选举可以充分表达想法,而不用在意“选第一支持者太小众相当于弃权,选大众支持者又不是自己最喜欢的”这样尴尬的情况从而提升投票的积极性。

本文出自 杨肉的演讲台,转载时请注明出处及相应链接。

本文永久链接: https://yangzhe1991.org/blog/2015/04/gaming-the-vote-part-1/

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